Adjusting for teammate and opponent strength can be tricky business, however. In particular, fouls that contribute to the bonus/penalty13 can increase the value of possessions later on in the quarter by making the penalty (which results in free-throw attempts being awarded on nonshooting fouls) more likely to occur. Or more technically, PREDATOR does, since that’s the version of RAPTOR we use for projecting future performance. In crunch time, these teams may have a bigger advantage than their raw stats imply. The differences are that PREDATOR accounts for the number of defensive fouls committed and assigns it a positive coefficient, whereas RAPTOR does not, and that PREDATOR accounts for minutes per game while RAPTOR does not. By contrast, the NBA’s potential assist category is determined algorithmically. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. The dataset is a data frame with 16,541 rows representing games and 14 variables: date. The opponents’ shooting data is quite a valuable indicator of rim protection or 2-point defense, on the other hand. Here, for example, are the 500 best RAPTOR and Approximate RAPTOR seasons of all time, ranked by combined regular season and playoff WAR. These "modern" data files contain the boxscore and on/off plus-minus components of RAPTOR, which are then combined into a total RAPTOR rating. Finally, RAPTOR adjusts individual players’ ratings so that they sum up to reflect the team’s overall performance, adjusted for score effects and strength of competition. Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. UPDATED Oct. 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM. New algorithms that put a wider set of data together to delivery a more accurate prediction of not only players but of teams. In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: Before we get into more detail about RAPTOR, a few “getting to know you” basics about it: RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played2 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Time of possession: The value of a possession also decreases as time ticks off the shot clock. Net passes: The NBA also keeps track of the number of passes a player makes and receives during the game, and a positive passing differential is associated with a higher RAPM in and out of sample. But what about fouls that don’t result in free throws? In nontechnical language: You need to adjust “junk time” statistics. View all posts by nedwardsthro Post navigation. Date. Several of the biographical variables that we employ this year are new. `modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv` contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by team, season, and season_type since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available. In weighting performance over the past three seasons, our projections previously assigned 60 percent of the weight to the most recent season, 30 percent to the second-most-recent season and 10 percent to the third-most-recent one. Enhanced offensive rebounds: Offensive rebounds are a tricky category. Contested rebounds are more valuable, although this makes less of a difference for offensive than defensive rebounds. 5. And RAPTOR replacement level is set to -2.75 points per 100 possessions…. Assists on dunks and corner threes are considerably more valuable than assists on midrange jumpers. Players who are adept at inducing offensive fouls include Kyle Lowry, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Smart, Patrick Beverley and J.J. Barea. Note that evaluating the performance of a player’s courtmates provides for a more precise and direct way to evaluate a player’s impact than looking at his team’s overall rating while he was off the court. To some extent, this statistic is also capturing a team’s overall defensive performance while a player is on the floor. In contrast to our previous system, RAPTOR uses the same overall replacement level (-2.75) across different positions, although note that replacement-level guards will tend to be terrible defensively and tolerable offensively, while the reverse is true for replacement-level bigs. However, the deduction for a made free throw is relatively minor (0.19 points). Others like Adams are both skilled at getting their own rebounds and at boxing out opponents from getting theirs. In practice, however, there’s rarely a clean one-to-one correspondence between players at different positions. These have a small amount of value also because they (i) reset the shot clock to 14 seconds and (ii) often allow the offense to inbound the ball from an advantageous position, such as along the baseline near the basket, depending on where the foul was committed (empirically, possessions that restart after a nonshooting foul have a fairly high expected value). 100 percent of travels, charging fouls, 5-second violations, offensive goaltends and baskets from below. We can then use Pythagorean expectation to estimate a team’s winning percentage. Close. bechdel # If using RStudio: View (bechdel) To see a detailed list of all 128 datasets, including information on the corresponding articles published on FiveThirtyEight.com, click here. These "modern" data files contain the box score and on/off plus-minus components of RAPTOR, which are then combined into a total RAPTOR rating. Rebounding can involve a fair amount of luck, and loitering near the basket hoping for rebounds can have negative consequences for a team’s spacing. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. This is its main way of punishing defenders for committing fouls. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets. As Jeremias Engleman writes, when a team is behind by 20 points, it’s expected to score around 6 points per 100 possessions more than it does in a tied game, which is like “replacing an average offensive player with LeBron [James].”. Penalty fouls drawn: Some additional benefits to drawing fouls are hard to measure via RAPM. That is to say that MVP, All-NBA and All-Star voters can sometimes pick up on subtle aspects of player quality that RAPTOR misses. We find that further iterations (i.e., looking at a player’s courtmates’ courtmates’ courtmates’ ratings) don’t contribute toward predicting RAPM. Thus, we estimate that nonshooting fouls drawn are worth about 0.16 points. Note that while isolation turnovers are more costly to a player’s offensive RAPTOR because they indicate a lack of spacing, they’re actually slightly better from a defensive standpoint because they tend not to be live-ball turnovers. In addition, drawing fouls can put opponents in foul trouble and yield worse opponent lineups going forward. In some ways, DRAYMOND was a first step in the creation of RAPTOR, our first foray into incorporating player tracking data into our projections. More precisely, we calculate each individual defender’s defensive rating and average them together — not the defensive rating for the five-man unit. Read more about the methodology. To be listed, players must have had a minimum of 1000 minutes played between the playoffs and regular season combined. We use a 5-point scale for past awards, where a player gets 5 points for winning the MVP, 4 points, 3 points and 2 points for making the 1st, 2nd and 3rd All-NBA teams, and 1 point for making the All-Star team. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight - fivethirtyeight/data. Wide to long/tidy data format in data examples now done with tidyr::pivot_longer() instead of tidyr::gather() Added new data sets: The RAPTOR variables correspond to Points above average per 100 possessions added by player. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. (Although it depends on how the rebound is secured, the average value of a possession after an offensive rebound is around 1.2 points.) Basically, this statistic allows us to punish guards and wings more if opposing guards and wings are doing most of the scoring and to punish bigs more if opposing bigs are doing most of the scoring, as opposed to punishing all players equally. Contested defensive rebounds are worth considerably more in RAPTOR than uncontested rebounds. at That is, reduce how many points the opposing team scores; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and negative ones are bad. On the other hand, a lot of rebounding has to do with being in the right place at the right time. Since 2013-14, the best and worst players based on positional opponents’ points allowed are as follows: Positional opponents’ points per 100 possessions for players with at least 10,000 possessions played, 2013-14 through 2018-19, One advantage of this metric is that it can capture players who produce lots of blocks or rebounds at the rim — such as Kenneth Faried or Mitchell Robinson — but who aren’t very mobile defenders and might allow opposing centers and power forwards (especially stretch bigs) to score at high rates. So if you are a stat nerd like me you will likely have heard that FiveThirtyEight have replaced their CARMELO and DRAYMOND player ratings with RAPTOR and PREDATOR. The values in the chart reflect a 10-point lead. Instead, in assigning players to positions for our depth charts, we deliberately draw from multiple sources to make most players eligible at multiple positions. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Differences between regular-season and playoff performance are. This brings us a lot closer to capturing major parts of defense that have traditionally gone unmeasured. ... FiveThirtyEight. newline-delimited, CSV options: RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. The main exception is that point guards are slightly more valuable than shooting guards in RAPTOR on average, which makes sense to us since the league’s best point guards (think of a player like Curry) often have all the skills that off-guards do, but they also have additional ball-handling and passing abilities that off-guards sometimes lack. Positional opponents’ points scored: As mentioned earlier, attempting to infer positional matchups — and counting how many points and rebounds a player’s positional opponents secure — provides helpful information. How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. While this is a good rule of thumb for players in the middle of their career, it’s too conservative a weighting scheme for very young or very old players. We expect that the state of publicly available defensive metrics will improve in future years, and RAPTOR will improve along with them. The Save Ruined Relief Pitching. Under game conditions, the players who participated in the 3-point contest hit so-called wide-open 3-pointers at a 44 percent rate instead. However, a player is charged for part of a usage a for free-throw attempt after a technical foul, since a team can choose which player takes the technical free throw. For a 23-year-old player entering his fourth NBA season, for instance, the program assigns around 76 percent of the weight to the player’s most recent season. In measuring offense, RAPTOR is relatively elegant. Note that blocks do provide some offensive value in RAPTOR when they initiate fast-break possessions. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. Enhanced assists: Likewise, the value of an assist in RAPTOR is proportional to the expected value of the resulting shot. Because RAPM evaluates players by comparing how a team performs when the player is on or off the court, it struggles with situations where a player creates value for his teammates regardless of whether he’s on the court. These estimates were built by figuring out how the limited data kept in earlier eras (box score plus team data and RPM for 2001-2013, and just box score/team data … In their odds posted on Thursday, August 20th, FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to possess the NBA’s second … RAPTOR in many ways takes its inspiration from BPM, which was designed by Daniel Myers. As I mentioned, some types of shots produce more offensive boards than others; players who get to the rim for floaters and layups can produce particularly high offensive rebounding rates, for instance (see table below). This table contains data behind the story Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA and the interactive The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR.. modern_RAPTOR_by_player.csv contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by season since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available.. modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv contains RAPTOR data … They also made the data open for anyone to download. These estimates were built by figuring out how the limited data kept in earlier eras (box score plus team data and RPM for 2001-2013, and just box score/team data … For every 10 points that it leads by, its scoring margin is affected by ___ points per 100 possessions, controlling for the personnel it has on the floor: Note that the adjustment is linear. Although there isn’t quite a 1-for-1 tradeoff: Being either the assister or the assistee is better than having nothing to do with the basket. Thus, players get a 0.04-point deduction for every foul they commit that counts toward the bonus/penalty. Instead of inferring how far a team was ahead or behind based on its average final score, we calculate it directly by evaluating how far it was ahead or behind in an average possession throughout the season. Opponents’ field goals made and attempted: Earlier this year, we introduced DRAYMOND, a measure of on-ball defense based on the NBA’s opponents’ shooting statistics. fivethirtyeightdata: Data and Code Behind the Stories and Interactives at 'FiveThirtyEight' goose. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and … Follow their code on GitHub. Motivation. This rating combines player tracking data, play by play data, traditional box score data, and plus minus data to create a new all-in-one metric. Here is an executive summary. Recent All-NBA, MVP and All-Star appearances. 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